Bitcoin (BTC) worth rallied to $24,200 on July 28 after a near-10.5% surge that started a day earlier.

The features appeared after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled intentions to decelerate the Fed’s prevailing tightening spree. This prompted some Bitcoin analysts to foretell short-term upside continuation, with pseudonymous analyst CryptoHamster seeing BTC at $26,000 subsequent.

However, BTC’s potential to recuperate completely from its ongoing bearish slumber seems low for not less than three key causes.

Bitcoin bulls have been duped earlier than

Bitcoin established its file excessive of $69,000 in November 2022. Since then, the cryptocurrency has declined by greater than 60% whereas at the present process a number of mini pumps on its method down.

On the everyday chart, Bitcoin has rebounded not less than 5 occasions since November 2021, securing 23%-to-40% features on every restoration. Nonetheless, it has continued its correction each time after forming an area worth high round its exponential transferring averages (EMA) after which falling to new yearly lows.

BTC/USD every day worth chart that includes ‘fakeouts.’ Supply: TradingView

This time seems to be no completely different, with Bitcoin going through a bullish rejection in June and recovering almost 17% a month later. Notably, BTC worth faces interim resistance in its 50-day EMA (the pink wave) at around $23,150, with a breakout clearing its method towards $27,000, coinciding with the 100-day EMA (black).

At $27,000, the value would nonetheless type a decrease excessive in comparison with the earlier native tops. So, that technically raises the potential for one other bearish continuation transfer.

Excessive promotion, low shopping for quantity

Curiously, the quantity habits throughout the ongoing Bitcoin correction reveal a higher curiosity in promoting the coin at native tops.

The everyday chart beneath illustrates this by highlighting the quantity readings throughout downtrends and uptrends since November 2021. As an illustration, the final two massive worth declines in Could and June coincided with a pointy enhancement in promoting volumes.

BTC/USD every day worth chart. Supply: TradingView

Compared, the follow-up rebounds to these worth declines accompanied by modest to decrease buying and selling volumes. The continuing quantity habits seem to be identical, peaking throughout the downtrend and dropping as the value recovers.

This implies a weakening upside momentum, which can result in one other worth correction.

BTC to equities correlation flips again to optimistic

Bitcoin is as soon as once more tailing inventory market traits regardless of briefly decoupling from them in early July.

As an illustration, on July 28, the day-to-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite stood close to 0.66. That features declines in each market after the U.S. gross home product (GDP) plunged for a second consecutive quarter.

BTC/USD and NDAQ everyday correlation coefficient. Supply: TradingView

That formally confirms that the U.S. has entered a “technical recession,” which might weigh negatively on the inventory market. Subsequently, Bitcoin’s drawback prospects seem excessive if its optimistic correlation with the inventory market continues.

The views and opinions expressed listed here are solely these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate the views of Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, you need to conduct your personal analysis when making a call.

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